Scanning the day’s media reports after Monday’s monstrous market rally, I was bemused by the number of analysts who continue to inform us, the unwashed masses, that this is a “bear market rally”, meaning that anyone who thinks the market downturn is over is a fool. The chutzpah it takes to presume you know the intentions of billions of individual and institutional investors around the globe is staggering, but such is the nature of Wall Street.

One particular analyst’s comment was especially amusing to me, however, because I think it was perhaps more honest about his utter cluelessness than he really intended.

“I think this is still a bear-market rally,” he said. “But if we move above 8,000 and are able to hold that level, I may have to change my opinion.”

The plain-English translation of this would be: “I’m saying we’re still in a bear market. Unless it turns out we’re in a bull market. Then I’ll say we’re in a bull market.” This is akin to the weatherman looking out the window to give you your weather forecast. Thanks a lot, Dr. Scoop.

This reminds me of the old saying, “Opinions are like bellybuttons. Everyone has one.” (Technically that is not the exact part of the anatomy referenced in the ol’ saying, but I have to keep it clean here…) The point being that if a reporter calls an analyst and asks him what he thinks of a market rally or market decline, he’s going to offer an incisive opinion because it is going to read a lot better than if he says, “Don’t have even the vaguest idea! How about you?”

And if you work on Wall Street, your opinion is going to be massively influenced by the groupthink of all the traders and analysts and hedge-fund managers you are surrounded by 24/7 at your Exeter reunions and yacht christenings. You may have noticed, however, that the Wall Street mindset is not exactly representative of what the rest of the country is collectively thinking at any given time. It’s sort of like Washington, D.C., but with nicer suits.

When you throw a few dozen of these opinions together into a Wall Street Journal article or CNBC segment, it starts to seem like these people really know something about where the market is heading. But if you go back and look at their comments from the past, like in 1999 (“Buy!”) and in 2002 (“Sell!”) and in 2007 (“Buy!”), you will find that very often they know the exact opposite of “something”, which is, of course…nothing. And if you get them in a corner at a cocktail party away from the microphones, they might even tell you that.

What makes this crowd so dangerous is that they aren’t afraid to pretend otherwise, and they are all too happy to perform their Gypsy Fortune Teller act whenever the media asks them to. That’s why the few beacons of light like John Bogle and Warren Buffet shine through the white noise so brightly – because they are some of the few market gurus who will look the general public straight in the eye and tell them they have no clue about the near-term direction of the market, and no one else does either. They are the voices of reason in a sea of insanity.

There is another saying about investing that I particularly like: “Stocks climb a wall of worry.” When you look at the market’s long-term history, that may be the most accurate observation anyone has ever made. There is always plenty to worry about, and sometimes those worries affect the market in the short term, and then all those “experts” seem to be clairvoyant. But then, eventually, stocks begin to climb that wall of worry and don’t look back, and all those who let the day’s supposed experts alter their long-term investment strategy are left in the dust while the market moves on inexorably without them.